The large-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine significantly changed the situation in the Caspian region, when the Caspian Sea itself became a significant militaristic springboard for the invaders.
It was near this sea that the Russian invaders accumulated the potential of their navy, with its subsequent transfer to the Black and Azov Seas, and it is in the Caspian region that the Russians maintain bombers for criminal rocket attacks against Ukraine.

Currently, the Russian invaders, as part of a large-scale aggression, have temporarily achieved the goal of ousting Ukraine from the coast of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait occupied by the Russians, and thus the occupiers control by force of arms the “transit corridor” between the Caspian and the Black Sea, that is the track to the World Ocean.

Under such conditions, the aggressor state seeks to increase its pressure on the Caspian countries, including Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which are partially dependent on Russian transit.

Now the Russians have galvanized the holding of the “Sixth Caspian Summit” in Ashgabat, which was repeatedly postponed after the signing of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea at the “Fifth Caspian Summit” in 2018.

In fact, this document was a “framework” and, among other things, prohibited the presence of military forces of third countries in the Caspian Sea, while guaranteeing the right of transit to the World Ocean for the Caspian states.

It is noteworthy that after the signing of this agreement, the parties “took a break” and subsequent agreements arising from the convention were not agreed between them for four years; in addition, Iran is obviously delaying own ratification of the Convention.

Many analysts say that the “urgent” holding of the “Sixth Caspian Summit” was used by the Kremlin in response to the systemic political and diplomatic defeats of the aggressor at the global and diplomatic levels in order to demonstrate “success anywhere.”

However, these “successes” were very faded, because, despite all the efforts of Russian “diplomats”, nothing new appeared at the summit in the “military-political dimension” and its final communiqué actually duplicates the relevant norms of the 2018 convention.

Moreover, the obvious Russians’ imperial narratives, with which they accompanied the preparation and holding of the event, were apparently “really liked” at least by Iran, which, with all the features of the regime in Tehran, clearly does not consider itself to be a Russian puppet.

In fact, all the Caspian countries, despite the specifics of their management models, are well aware that Russian adventures to use the Caspian as a springboard for aggression and war crimes in Ukraine simply cannot but cause strategic negative consequences, and therefore they do not want to have anything to do with the corresponding losses of the Russians.