As we have already written, in recent days there has been an intensification of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s activities in the waters near the mouth of the Danube and Zmiiny Island. After the losses suffered in early May, the aggressor launched a massive propaganda campaign about the alleged “insignificance” of this area.

At the same time, as of May 11, Russian invaders had amassed up to six “Raptor” and “Serna” patrol and landing boats near the island. As we have already written, the aggressor received a logistical trap on Zmiiny, “stretching” his own maritime communications, vulnerable to modern weapons, between the waters near the Danube and Sevastopol.

In general, the aggressor’s activation of its aircraft and “mosquito fleet” and its intensification of criminal missile attacks on mainland Ukraine is a change in the tactics of the aggressor’s Black Sea Fleet, which has not so much military as “political” reasons.

We have repeatedly written since March 2022 that the aggressor’s failures at sea led to “big problems” for the commander of the Black Sea Fleet, admiral Igor Osipov, who is currently under Russian special services’ investigation after Osipov was removed from command.

Now the occupation propaganda is forced to somehow explain Osipov’s absence at public events in May, because from April 2022, in fact, the occupier’s fleet was commanded by a “submariner”, vice-admiral Arkady Romanov. At the same time, the occupiers-controlled media intensified the “constructive criticism” of the fake “governor” Mikhail Razvozhayev, who is closely connected with detained admiral Osipov in corruption deals and “personnel issues”.

At the same time, the intensification “in the Crimean dimension” of the current leader of North Ossetia, Sergey Menyaylo, became noticeable, and he suddenly began to make statements about the events on the occupied peninsula, spread by Russian propaganda.

Of course, one can explain the attention to “Crimean football” or so-called “native harbor” of the pure “rich part” of Menyaylo, an aggressor naval officer who “grew up” to deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet, then declared by the Kremlin in 2014 as a fake “governor” of Sevastopol, and who left the occupied Crimea in 2016 due to the struggle of Kremlin clans.

But we should not forget the current events near North Ossetia, where the Russian occupiers are preparing an illegal “annexation” of the Tskhinvali region of Georgia in the form of a fake “Republic of South Ossetia”.

To do this, the occupiers replaced the “president” in Tskhinvali through “elections”, where they appointed Alan Gagloev, a professional economist and at the same time a Russian secret services’ staff and energy officer with twenty years of experience, to replace kleptocrat Anatoly Bibilov on May 8.

According to the Kremlin, Gagloev will be responsible for the “referendum” on the “reunification” of Tskhinvali not just with Russia in common, but exactly with North Ossetia. Thus, it is time for the current head of the relevant Russian region, Menyaylo, to look for a new chair, because “united Ossetia” will obviously be led by Gagloev. in Vladikavkaz.

Most likely, Russians want to return Menyaylo “from the Caucasian exile” to the occupied Crimea, but the Kremlin has not yet decided on his role.

After all, it can be both Sevastopol and Simferopol, where Crimean collaborators have significantly discredited themselves in the eyes of Moscow, both by “inability” to provide “reliable rear”  the aggressor’s troops and by their criminal, but at the same time unsecured efforts to “join Kherson and Melitopol”.

Probably, the Kremlin is hatching plans to “restore” the criminal “Crimean federal district” of the 2014-2016 model, where the same Menyaylo can be appointed “supervisor” over Crimea and Sevastopol and provasbly over Russia-occupied soith of Ukraine’s mainland.

Of course, the personalities of the Black Sea Fleet’s leadership will then change, which is now well understood in occupied Sevastopol, where the relevant Russian “naval commanders” are now trying to prove their “success and loyalty” to the Kremlin through purely adventurous actions at sea.