Since the beginning of the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the aggressor state has made some attempts to involve dependent post-Soviet countries, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) members.

Currently, the dictatorial regime in Belarus is the main supporter of Russian aggression, which provides its territory, military and civilian infractructure to attack Ukraine, but large-scale involvement of Lukashenko’s troops in hostilities has not taken place yet.

Other CSTO member states, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, have taken a de facto wait-and-see attitude, and the mass involvement of their servicemen in hostilities, including as “volunteers”, has not been recorded.

However, experts said that these countries may hand over some Russian equipment to Russia in March, including the supply of four “Su-30SM” air fighters to Armenia. Also, these states take a mostly common position with Russia on Russian aggression in UN agencies.

However, Russia plans to use other formats in the aggression against Ukraine, in fact the CSTO itself, as a “regional security organization”.

In particular, Russia understands the reality of the failure of its strategic military goals in Ukraine and the likelihood of a cease-fire agreements, with the need for Russia to withdraw its own troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine, which the aggressor of course does not want to do.

For example, Russia understands that the restoration of full de facto control over Ukraine’s Kherson region will significantly accelerate the deoccupation of Crimea, even through economic and diplomatic means.

Therefore, these Russian occupiers may be preparing to “legally stay” in Ukraine as a so-called “peacekeeping contingent” by abusing the provisions of the 2007 CSTO agreement and its protocol, which is currently being hastily ratified by the organization’s states. This “status”, as the aggressor can model the situation, will provide a “buffer zone” that Russia plans to create as a result of losing its offensive.

In fact, at the next CSTO meeting scheduled for April 14 or 15, Russia may demand from other CSTO states its satellites, with their consent to the “CSTO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine”.

This can be facilitated by provocations fabricated by the occupiers’ secret services about the alleged “attack of Ukrainian nationalists” in the border areas of the Russia’s Kursk or Belgorod regions or in the Russia-occupied Crimea.

Of course, Russia uses “whip and gingerbread” methods to obtain the consent of its satellites. After all, if the Lukashenko regime, which is effectively controlled by the Kremlin, is likely to support such an “initiative”, other CSTO countries still have a “field of maneuver”.

For example, the leaders of Armenia are now directly demanding that Russia first assist in the speedy conclusion of peace with Azerbaijan, after which the Armenian government will allegedly “be able to provide comprehensive support to Russia”.

Tajikistan’s ruling regime is demanding guarantees and assistance from Russia, given the dangers posed to Dushanbe by the Afghan Taliban regime. At the same time, the chronic border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has escalated, with both sides vying for Russian support.

It is noteworthy that in recent weeks in Astana and Bishkek, representatives of the United States and the European Union of the highest level have been actively working on diplomatic visits. However, it is obvious that the activities of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the CSTO on aggression in Ukraine will also take into account the real position of communist China.