At present, the economic consequences for Crimea related to Russian aggression can be modeled in the medium term. It is noteworthy that the occupiers themselves, acknowledging the next “temporary difficulties”, focus exclusively on the expected “improvement” of Crimea’s connection with Russia through the invaded mainland Ukraine and the supply of water to Crimea by the North Crimean Canal. At the same time, paradoxically, the announced “improvement of water supply” will not change the situation with the food supply of the Crimean residents. The fact is that during the occupation of the peninsula, the region’s farmers were included in Russian production schemes, where most of the seeds for grain crops were supplied from European countries. In particular, this applies to rice and soybeans, which the occupiers plan to grow on the irrigated lands of Crimea. A similar situation exists with seeds for vegetable crops and eggs for breeding broiler chickens.

In the industry at present, even the propaganda of the occupiers does not deny the logistical collapse. After all, the aggressor state is gradually being excluded from global supply chains, making it more difficult to import goods to local importers. In Russia, due to sanctions restrictions, foreign companies stop working en masse, and the fall of the ruble promises Russian producers a serious increase in prices for foreign raw materials, components and new equipment. This will immediately affect the cost of the final product, and Russian analysts expect a “worst-case scenario” in which civilized countries will completely stop exporting goods to Russia, and the necessary technological support for production. The collapse is currently expected, in particular, by the chemical industry of the Northern Crimea due to the collapse of supply schemes for raw materials and finished products.

This will undoubtedly reduce the output of finished products in all sectors of the economy. It is noteworthy that in Russia itself, given the prospects of economic collapse, the regional authorities have announced a number of entities to provide the population with monthly financial support for products in the amount of several thousand rubles. The occupying ‘administration” of Crimea does not make such promises and announces a “crazy influx” of tourists to the region due to the de facto termination of Russia’s flights to most countries. It is not specified how exactly they plan to import tourists to Crimea in the conditions of the collapse of the air transportation market in Russia and whether these tourists will not be the same ones who currently receive benefits for minimal food in Russia.