Last week, ahead of the Munich Security Conference, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published data from its study of military capabilities, “The Military Balance 2020”. Founded in 1958, the Institute has become the world’s leading authority on global security, political risks and military conflicts, and it is known for its extensive global research and publications.

The new analytics of the Institute is an extremely serious and important resource for all those involved in the search for security policy materials. For example, the Institute’s annual assessment of military capabilities and defense economies covers more than 170 countries. Naturally, the new study gives the most objective and correct figures for Russia. Using them, we tried to impose them on the situation in the occupied Crimea.

According to the current Decree of the Russia’s President, 2017, the total staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is allegedly 903 thousands people, with a staff of all military servicemen of 1013 thousands. We would like to add that “The Military Balance 2020” has so far provided its estimate for 900 thousands people in the Russian Armed Forces and 554 thousands in other Russian military formations [1].

At the same time, Russia officially states, that at the beginning of 2021 its population (calculated together with the occupied territories) allegedly amounted to 146.2 million people. Therefore, “on average” in Russia, the share of the Armed Forces of the aggressor (without other military formations) to the “general population” (including the seized lands) is 0.62. At the same time, according to the statements of the state bodies of Ukraine, which were not refuted by the aggressor, the Crimean group of the Russian Armed Forces at the beginning of 2021 is about 33 thousand, with a peninsula’s population of about 2.4 million people [2].

Thus, the share of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the population of the occupied Crimea is 1.38, which is more than twice that the mentioned “average” figure. Thus, Ukraine’s statements about the aggressive militarization of Crimea by the aggressor-State are confirmed by such elementary mathematical calculation.

1. https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/military-balance-2020-book

2. https://sprotyv.info/news/rosijskim-okupantam-u-krimu-potribno-bilshe-2-5-mln-kubiv-vodi-na-rik-naiev